A year 2020 research study (Athira and Agilan 2020 ) on the impact of climate change on rainfall over Chennai, predicted the intensity and the frequency of extreme rainfall over the city is likely to increase under RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
When the efforts to curb emissions are medium, that is, with an increasing tendency to use renewable energy sources and a mix of transport methods (internal combustion engines, electric vehicles, bicycles), the scenario of RCP 4.5 sets in. Similarly, RCP 2.6 means high efforts to curb emissions, complete dependence on renewable energy sources/emission capture methods and a mass tendency to use bicycles and public transport. RCP 8.5 means the grim scenario of low efforts to curb emissions.
It is predicted that an RCP 2.6 scenario would increase the global temperature by 1.0 degree celcius , the sea level by 0.4 meters, and cause very small increase in extreme weather conditions by 2081-2100 (relative to 1986-2005 temperatures). For the same period, RCP 4.5 scenario would increase the global temperature by 1.8 degree celcius, the sea level by 0.47 meters and cause a moderate increase in extreme weather conditions. RCP 8.5 would cause the global temperature increase by 3.7 degree celcius, sea level rise by 0.63 meters and a large increase in extreme weather conditions.
According to a 2016 report by Centre for Science and Environment titled "Why Urban India Floods", Chennai has faced seven major flood events since 2000. The rainfall pattern of 2005 was not very different from the worst flood year 2015. However, no lesson was learned from the flood events of 2005.
Tambaram and its adjacent areas were the worst affected during these flood events. Would this misery continue in the future too, when the future weather predictions for Chennai are really alarming?
Current storm water drainage structures are incapable of handling the rain water run off. Tambaram is surrounded by many inter connected lakes. Selaiyur lake is located east of Madras Christian College, Chitlapakkam Lake in the north, Sembakkam in the north east. They are connected to the the biggest and the only marshland of Chennai, namely the Pallikaranai marshland in the east. This marshland drains into to the Buckingham Canal through Okiyam Maduvu. These channels and waterbodies are responsible for regulating the storm water run off of Tambaram area.
All these waterbodies and their drainage channels were encroached upon and heavily polluted before the 2015 flood event. However, since then, civil society groups have intervened and have started restoring them with the help of the Government. Chitlapakkam lake regeneration is now a success story. Efforts to clean up and restore Selaiyur and Sembakkam lakes from 2018 have progressed. Works to restore Pallikaranai marsh land, now a declared Ramsar site, is in progress.
However the works are slow. As the rainy season is upon us once again, the time to reflect over and act on these issues effectively have returned.
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